The survival math
Juan does the runway arithmetic. They're surviving on an investment, no sales yet, and he'd miscalculated one month of runway when it was really about two. To pay all three of them at their current, humble, below-minimum-wage rate takes roughly 80 monthly users, which feels far. Then he remembers lifetime value, and the goal snaps closer. Netflix and Spotify only sell monthly, because their churn is low, they know users stay month after month, so they don't need to discount. Duolingo, whose users churn around month seven, does the opposite: it offers an annual plan at a discount, so the user feels they win (paying 80 or 90 instead of 120), while the company front-loads more than the ~70 of lifetime value it would otherwise collect, knowing the user leaves at seven months regardless. Applied to Severo, selling the annual plan to just 8 to 12 users covers a month of survival, so a goal that looked distant is actually close.
// trace: where this idea came from
- ↳ video diary @ 34:53 (necesitamos ~80 usuarios mensuales para pagarnos los tres, menos que un mínimo)
- ↳ video diary @ 35:47 (Netflix/Spotify solo mensual (bajo churn); Duolingo da anual porque el usuario se va al mes 7)
- ↳ video diary @ 38:00 (front-load, vender el anual con descuento, 8-12 anuales cubren un mes)
- ↳ Entry 242-2: Gamification is not a game (la misma monetización sobre la que se construye el precio)
Juan does the runway arithmetic out loud. They’re surviving on an investment, no sales yet, still building, and he’d scared himself by miscalculating one month of runway when it was really about two ▸ 33:36. To pay all three of them at their current rate, humble, below a Colombian minimum wage, takes roughly eighty monthly users, which feels far off ▸ 34:53. Then he remembers lifetime value, and the goal snaps closer.
el usuario se va al mes 7; véndele el año por adelantado →
The tell is in how different apps price. Netflix and Spotify sell only monthly, because their churn is low, they know users stay month after month, so they never need to discount ▸ 35:47. Duolingo, whose users churn around month seven, does the opposite: it dangles an annual plan at a discount, so the user feels they win, paying 80 or 90 instead of 120, while the company front-loads more than the roughly 70 of lifetime value it would have collected drip by drip, since the user leaves at seven months anyway ▸ 38:00. It’s the same gamified economy seen from the ledger. Applied to Severo, selling the annual plan to just eight to twelve users covers a month of survival, and from there it’s simple, so the target that looked distant is actually within reach…