The Jevons paradox
Juan revisits the Jevons paradox: the counterintuitive pattern where a new efficiency looks like it will kill the old market and instead grows it. He aims it at the jobs panic. Everyone says AI means fewer jobs, but the opposite may happen, if building software gets cheaper, more people enter, more programmers, more work, more incentives, just as the computer destroyed some jobs and created many more. The classic cases carry it: a car engine made five percent more efficient should cut fuel use, but cheaper cars mean more drivers and total consumption rises; digital mail was supposed to kill the postal service, and then packages arrived and made Brazil's postal company the fifth-largest firm in the country. Efficiency doesn't shrink demand, it unlocks it.
// trace: where this idea came from
- ↳ video diary @ 28:21 (la paradoja de Jevons, parece que la nueva tecnología va a matar el mercado y sucede lo contrario)
- ↳ video diary @ 29:26 (carros más eficientes cuestan menos, más gente los usa, el consumo sube)
- ↳ video diary @ 30:02 (el email iba a matar los correos, llegaron los paquetes, quinta mayor empresa de Brasil)
- ↳ Entry 249-1: Two red lines (el mismo miedo a los despidos que aquí se contrapesa)
Juan revisits the Jevons paradox: the counterintuitive pattern where certain technologies look like they’ll kill the old market and instead do the opposite, they grow it ▸ 28:21. He aims it straight at the jobs panic. So much is said about AI erasing work, my job is gone, but the reverse may hold: as building software gets cheaper, more people enter, there are more programmers, more work, better incentives, exactly as the computer destroyed some jobs and created many more ▸ 28:57.
la eficiencia no reduce el consumo, lo dispara →
The resource cases make it concrete. Make a car engine five percent more fuel-efficient and consumption should fall, but efficient cars cost less, so more people buy them and total fuel use climbs ▸ 29:32. And the one he likes best: thirty years ago everyone assumed digital mail would kill the postal service, no more letters to send, and then packages arrived, and today the postal company is the fifth-largest firm in Brazil, a courier of parcels instead of letters ▸ 30:02. The thing that was supposed to end the industry redefined it. Efficiency doesn’t shrink demand; it unlocks demand that the old price hid…
// continued in
no entry has continued this idea yet: the arc is still open