Product risk, market risk

The concept, from the pirated Mom Test he promises to buy when there’s money ▸ 0:18: every idea sits on a spectrum between product risk and market risk ▸ 0:56. A videogame is pure product risk, no survey can tell you if it’s fun before it exists ▸ 2:25, and so is anything whose answer is trivially yes: would you use the cure for cancer, would you buy the thing that sells 50% more ▸ 3:59. There the real questions are technical: can we build it, will it work, does the budget survive it, his home-diamond-machine example ▸ 5:39. Market risk asks the opposite set: does anyone want this, is the pain worth money, are there enough of them, the smart fridge that reorders your fruit being a thing you can build that nobody may pay for ▸ 6:14.

Then he runs the portfolio through it. Homigo sits in the middle, its matching algorithm an unproven technical bet ▸ 7:25; the notes app, Divo and Piqui are market risk, the tech exists, the question is whose pain it removes ▸ 7:45; Query Network is product risk in its purest form, and research adds a brutal clause, the best implementation takes everything, a 98% solution loses to a 99% one ▸ 8:28.

si la respuesta obvia es “sí, lo usaría”, la encuesta sobra y el riesgo es técnico →

The payoff is a cold case solved. His university venture project, Makia, salary and spending entirely on the blockchain, sounded excellent on paper and died at the fair ▸ 10:22. Now he can name why: it was a product-risk idea in a market-risk classroom, satisfaction surveys were useless, “si eso funciona como usted dice, tome mi plata” ▸ 11:43, and when questioned he had feelings about the blockchain instead of answers ▸ 13:45. The professors banned blockchain projects afterward without ever articulating the principle ▸ 12:16; the fair’s “boring” recycling and ice-cream ideas were simply the ones whose risk students could actually test ▸ 14:10. Julia’s verdict covers the whole entry: it isn’t a new idea, “darle nombre a los problemas lo deja todo más claro” ▸ 15:27…